Trade Team Update

Well after a few days of boring ranges, we finally got a nice push out of that stagnant range and we're able to test some upside once again...

I think this alarmed quite a few traders based on the questions and pm's I was getting today. But I'm not really sure why this move back up has come as a surprise, though. Either people don't read the daily updates or they are easily forgotten, but for the past week I've been calling for a return to test the 1.5600-1.5800 levels and now we're seeing this play out right before our eyes.

To be honest, the panicky questions got really annoying today and it's as if some traders were completely caught off-guard by today's move. So, allow me to cut and paste some excerpts from yesterday's update as a reminder to those who either don't take the time to read or don't use enough brain cell power to remember them:

As I've said many times, as long as we stay supported above the 1.5350 level, I'm keeping my topside targets of the euro pushing the 1.5600-1.5800 levels.

I'm not ruling out further testing of 1.5600 this week, and beyond if the fundamentals and commodities continue to play out in favor of the euro.

OK, so lets break this down... what did the fundamentals and commodities do today? They moved in favor of the euro... gold made gains, oil made new all-time highs, and today's fundamentals overall were EUR+. What did the euro did? It came within spitting distance of 1.5700 and will likely go back there to test a break this week.

See how easy this is?

Also from yesterday's update:

I'm likely going to play the shortside a touch more cautiously as long as I see the probabilities remaining intact for topside testing.

And:

Further oil gains will also keep the Dow under pressure, in my opinion. Should oil keep the Dow under pressure, this will only serve to give the euro yet another price action boost.

Now, lets see... what happened to the Dow today? Well, it lost 200 points... and what did the euro do? It moved up almost 200 points bottom to top...

I try to do these updates in plain language, easy to understand, and as straightforward as FX commentary and forecasting can possibly be. I don't speak in circles and tell it how I see it and how I think it will play out.

If you loaded up on shorts, which is what most of the panicked traders I talked to did, that is your own issue to deal with. Why you loaded up with shorts and or went net short is beyond anything I can possibly fathom, but that's your deal, not mine. I tried to short it, but got +1'd three times, so guess what I did? I went long. Make sense?