Priced in? Is data really priced in?

The term "priced in" is used quite often in the Forex market. The term is used to describe how a big fundamental event or piece of fundamental data is already factored in the price moves before it's actually released and realized by the market.

I absolutely, positively, do not, at all, whatsoever believe in this concept of "priced in". I never look at any event like a rate decision or an NFP being priced into the market or into the price action.

I do believe that market expectations can and will drive price action to certain levels but this idea that a rate hike or a rate cut, for example, is priced into the market is pure lunacy in my opinion.

I have a really good memory and I distinctly remember back in early September of last year that the market gurus and talking heads were saying that three Fed rate cuts were already priced into the EUR/USD.

I ripped up the idea "priced in" and said it was idiotic for anybody to even dare think that three Fed rate cuts were being priced into the EUR/USD.

So, I went back and did some basic research on what the Fed did with rates between September of 2007 and April of 2008 and correlated back to what the EUR/USD prices did between that time period.

And if this doesn't disprove and discredit the idea of "priced in," I don't know what will...

Fed Funds Rate before the first cut: 5.25%

First cut: September 18, 2007
Amount: -50bps
EUR/USD September low: 1.3548
EUR/USD September high: 1.4276
Gain: 728 pips in favor of the EUR

Second cut: October 31, 2007
Amount -25bps
EUR/USD October low: 1.4013
EUR/USD October high: 1.4503
October opening price: 1.4275
Gain: 228 pips in favor of the EUR (opening price vs. high price)

Third cut: December 11, 2007
Amount -25bps
EUR/USD December low: 1.4309
EUR/USD December high: 1.4769
December opening price: 1.4641
Gain: 128 pips in favor of the EUR (opening price vs. high price)

Fourth cut: January 22, 2008
Amount -75bps
EUR/USD January low: 1.4365
EUR/USD January high: 1.4921
January opening price: 1.4591
Gain: 330 pips in favor of the EUR (opening price vs. high price)

Fifth cut: January 30, 2008
Amount -50bps
EUR/USD January low: 1.4365
EUR/USD January high: 1.4921
January opening price: 1.4591
Gain: 330 pips in favor of the EUR (opening price vs. high price)

Sixth cut: March 18, 2008
Amount -75bps
EUR/USD March low: 1.5146
EUR/USD March high: 1.5902
March opening price: 1.5195
Gain: 707 pips in favor of the EUR (opening price vs. high price)

Seventh cut: April 30, 2008
Amount -25bps
EUR/USD April low: 1.5508
EUR/USD April high: 1.6018
April opening price: 1.5762
Gain: 256 pips in favor of the EUR (opening price vs. high price)

Total rate cuts: 7
Total amount of basis points cut: 325
Total euro gain between first cut and last cut: 2,470 pips

When the market gurus we're talking about the Fed rate cuts already being priced in the EUR/USD was trading around the 1.3500-1.3600 level. By the time the rate cut cycle was over the EUR/USD made a high at the 1.6000 level.

Still believe in the "priced in" concept?