Trade Team Update

I'm sorry for the delay with today's update and for what will be a very light and brief update...

Just a quick re-cap on today's events... the euro was again pushed lowered thanks to gold and oil... gold lost another $30+ today and oil lost another $3+. This week gold has dropped from $975 down to a low of $918. In the past few weeks oil has dropped from a high of almost $150 to under $125. There's no way the euro can make any gains with commodities so weak to the downside.

But what is to be noted is the fact that the euro is presently sitting above the 1.5700 level even though commodities have taken their worst beating to date. To me this shows the euro still has some fire power to make another run towards 1.5850+.

The fundamental situation for Thursday is insane and the EUR is at heavy risk. Most if not all EUR data should print at or below expected with the USD data printing USD+.

All eyes will be on Fed Geithner who is a known hawk. I fully expect to hear hawkish rhetoric and I fully expect to hear Geithner call for rate hikes in the near-term.

Fundamentally the EUR is going to need positive news to gain any upward momentum because right now there's very little by way of upward momentum. As far as the price action goes, my downside targets have all been hit and we've backed away from testing the key 1.5650 level.

As I indicated all week a break of the 1.5750 level would take us to 1.5680 and points lower. Now, we need to work our way back up and over 1.5750 in order to get anywhere on the topside. Should we fail to even sustain a break of the 1.5720 level I see more downside and I see an easy break of 1.5650 and then a test of 1.5620-1.5600.

Price action is weak to the upside right now but we'll know more once London enters the market. You will want to be alert when all the EUR data hits the markets as it could get ugly between 0300 EST and 0730 EST. That time holds good potential for heightened volatility.

Yes, I'm still bearish on the euro, will short any rise I can get my hands on, and will hold my best euro shorts at this point.

Be smart as things should get even crazier the rest of the week...